The earth breathes, somewhat irregularly. It breathes carbon dioxide in a great cycle of emissions and absorptions, otherwise known as “sources and sinks,” a vital bio-geo-physical process that regulates the planet’s climate.

Natural CO2 sources and sinks in our oceans and terrestrial ecosystems are at equilibrium, producing 300 metric tons of carbon dioxide a year and absorbing 300 metric tons. Human activity on the other hand is not at equilibrium. We are producers only, emitting 7 metric tons (or gigatons) per year, primarily through the burning of fossil fuels in our factories, homes, and cars.

The earth graciously, albeit irregularly, absorbs about half of our excess emissions – in a process not well understood by science. Scientists are so perplexed by this process that they call it “miraculous” and a “great mystery.” But that is about to change. A new project underway may provide critically important insights into the earth’s respiratory system.

Climatologists have wondered how long she will provide one trillion dollars a year of CO2 abatement services pro bono, and if she decides to go on a strike how might the excess CO2 in the atmosphere tip the natural carbon cycle out of equilibrium and accelerate climate change. What sort of perturbation to the naturally balanced system are humans actually causing?

“This is no ‘Day After Tomorrow,’” say Charles Miller, referring to a recently released film depicting an overnight cataclysmic climate change. Miller, the Deputy Investigator, or second in command, of a visionary global project called Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena California, believes we still have some time to better understand the role human generated carbon dioxide emissions play in climate change, and perhaps prevent such a disaster.

He will be giving a Pinhead Town Talk entitled, “Watching the Earth Breathe: Measuring CO2 from Space with the Orbiting Carbon Observatory,” on Tuesday July 6, 2004, at 6:00 - 7:15 pm in the Wilkinson Public Library Program Room and held in cooperation with Telluride Science Research Center. A $5 donation is suggested.

The mission of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory is to “make the first global, space-based measurements of atmospheric CO2 with the precision, resolution, and coverage needed to characterize sources and sinks of this important greenhouse gas,” according to Cristyl Johnson of NASA’s Office of Earth Science. The OCO project was selected by NASA as the fifth mission in its Earth System Science Pathfinder Program.

The aim of the OCO is to improve the overall understanding of the natural processes and human activities that regulate the distribution of C02 in the atmosphere. It is hoped that the OCO will enable reliable forecasts of future changes in the distribution of CO2 in the atmosphere and provide reliable data to understand how those changes will effect the earth’s climate. Importantly, OCO will provide real data about climate change for policy makers around the globe.

The OCO space craft, developed by Orbital Sciences Corporation, will be fitted with a single instrument consisting of three high resolution grating spectrometers, which was designed by Hamilton Sundstrand Sensor Systems. The OCO is expected to launch in October 2007 from the Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, just months before the Kyoto Protocol monitoring of CO2 emissions commences.

The Kyoto Protocol was established to regulate global CO2 emissions. It was ratified by 97 countries, not including the USA which opposes the provision that “developing nations” are exempt from regulation. China and India, for example, are considered developing nations. At the original Kyoto Protocol Summit, CO2 was identified as one of six greenhouse gases, and it is thought to be the most efficient of those six.

Currently the best CO2 measurements are taken by the Climate Modeling and Diagnostic Laboratory, a division of NOAA, in Boulder, Colorado. With 100 monitoring stations around the world, they take weekly surface measurements that are converted to monthly averages.

In contrast, OCO will orbit the earth 14 times a day, in a 16 day cycle, providing millions of measurements of CO2 levels daily. The measurements from space will be calibrated with surface measurements to ensure accuracy.

Climatologists report that over the past century, the average global temperature has increased by approximately half a degree Celsius. This chage in climate is believed to be the result of human activity, particularly our increased reliance upon fossil fuels to power electric power plants and automobiles. Because of the exponential growth in global populations, national economies, and the use of fossil fueled technologies, the global average temperature is expected to continue to rise by an additional 1.0 to 3.5 degrees C by the year 2100.

Temperature increases are not uniform across the globe, however. While temperate latitudes may increase by 1 degree over the next century, the polar regions are expected to increase by as much as 5-10 degrees. Exactly why is unknown. This is one of the many questions the OCO could help answer. What scientists do know is that under the vast northern tundra of Canada and Russia lay frozen rotten vegetable matter, that if warmed, will release untold amounts of additional natural C02, exasperating global climate change.

The atmosphere of planet earth, at its origin, was estimated to be 50% CO2. As life took hold on its delicate surface, and as plants flourished by consuming CO2 for sustenance, expelling oxygen as a byproduct, the percentage of oxygen in our atmosphere grew. Today Oxygen accounts for 21% of our atmosphere, and carbon dioxide a fraction of one percent. That change evolved over the course of billions of years.

Now, despite its seemingly small fraction of the atmosphere, CO2 is the fourth or fifth most abundant atmospheric gas, and importantly, “CO2 is an integrative signal of the health of the entire biosphere,” says Miller. “About half of the 7 gigatons humans emit into the atmosphere each year stays there. And our emissions are steadily and constantly increasing each year. In the last 150 years, we have seen CO2 levels increase 25% from 270 parts per million to 370 parts per million.”

Miller’s mission is to provide data that will enable people to intelligently manage human carbon emissions, or eliminate them altogether.

The earth is breathing our emissions; the question might be, when will her lungs collapse?

For more information about Miller’s Pinhead Town Talk go to www.pinheadinstitute.org or Pinhead Institute at 970-718-0713

July 1, 2004
Pinhead Town Talk Article for July 3rd issue
Exclusively for the Telluride Watch
Nana Naisbitt, Executive Director of the Pinhead Institute